UFC 317 Predictions: Who Will Win – Topuria or Oliveira? Expert Picks & Odds Breakdown

The wait is nearly over, UFC 317 hits Las Vegas on June 28, 2025, with a blockbuster lightweight title showdown between undefeated Ilia Topuria and veteran powerhouse Charles Oliveira. With odds heavily favouring Topuria, this article digs into expert insights, strategic match-breakdowns, and key betting angles to help you make a smart, informed decision.

Betting Odds Snapshot

DraftKings: Topuria –425 / Oliveira +3305
FanDuel: Topuria –550 / Oliveira +400
ESPN’s VSiN: Topuria –440 / Oliveira +340; Over 1.5 Rounds –145 / Under +114

Topuria is the strong favourite with strike-heavy odds, while intrepid bettors are eyeing underdog value and method-of-victory markets.

Expert Prognostications

CBS Sports analysts point to a 50/50 fight, citing Oliveira's submission savvy and veteran grit in deeper rounds. They emphasise that while Topuria packs power, if he "can’t connect" early, Oliveira may exploit defensive lapses.

Covers.com aligns with the favourite pick: Topuria by KO or TKO (striking ML –425), reinforcing the expectation of a power finish .

talkSPORT analysts, including Vanessa D’Ambrosio and Ben Davies, overwhelmingly back Topuria to finish by TKO/KO, forecasting a stoppage within rounds 2–3 .

Oddsshark notes the massive line jump—Topuria –550—highlighting a favourable KO pick while acknowledging Oliveira (+400) presents a tempting underdog position .

VSiN’s Britton Hess favours the Over 1.5 Rounds (-145), suggesting the fight may extend past the initial pace .

Deadspin and other outlets offer best-value angles: Topuria KO/TKO (-190) and Oliveira submission (+400) as garnish .

Strategic Match Breakdown

1. Early Combat Intensity:
   Topuria has stated his aim: “Put him to sleep in the first round”. He’s known to press hard with precise power shots early in fights.
    
2. Striking Vulnerabilities:
   Oliveira’s significant-strike defence sits near 49%, compared with Chandler and Makhachev, who landed over 60%. That leaves room for Topuria’s heavy strikes to dominate.
    
3. Submissions & Grappling Poker:
   Experts caution that if the fight hits the ground, Oliveira’s rear-naked choke and jiu-jitsu prowess (20 UFC subs) become real threats. He’s capable of turning scrambles into fight-altering submissions.
    
4. Experience in the Tank:
   Oliveira has been in lengthy, pressure-laden fights before, whereas Topuria has little five-round seasoning. Some analysts argue Oliveira’s veteran savvy gives him a late-round edge.
    
5. Cardio & Test of Grit:
   Volkanovski pointed out a possible route: push Topuria physically to spot conditioning gaps. However, Topuria's endurance is strong—he lasted full five rounds against Josh Emmett.
    

Expert Tip Sheet

• Risk Lite: Topuria by KO/TKO (moneyline) is the consensus smart money.
   
• Long Shot: Oliveira by submission (+400) offers high-reward value for counter-punchers.
   
• Rounds Play: Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) bet favoured by VSiN for strategic play.
   
• Prop Options: KO/TKO early (–190) emergence as a favourite with Deadspin pick set.
   

Final Take

• Most Likely Outcome: Topuria wins by KO/TKO in rounds 1–3—favoured by experts and odds alike.
   
• Upset Potential: Oliveira wins by submission, especially if the fight goes into late rounds and he manages to ground Topuria.
   

Timing Edge: Expect early fireworks, but it may stretch—worth keeping an eye on Round 2–3 finishes.