Pat Cummins Likely to Miss Australia vs South Africa First ODI

Pat Cummins is expected to sit out Australia's opening ODI against South Africa in Durban on Thursday as the visitors manage their leading fast bowlers with the Test series firmly in mind.

Cummins arrived in South Africa later than Mitchell Starc after both were rested from Australia's recent ODI series in Zimbabwe. Josh Hazlewood also played only one match on that tour as part of the workload plan.

The three ODIs against South Africa are useful preparation for Australia's 2027 World Cup plans, but the bigger priority comes in October. The first Test starts at Kingsmead on October 9, only nine days after the final ODI in Potchefstroom.

Australia are therefore expected to rotate Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood rather than send the three quicks through all three games. One possible setup has Starc and Hazlewood featuring in the first and third matches, with Cummins taking the middle ODI in Johannesburg.

Nathan Ellis gets another chance

That rotation could hand Nathan Ellis a bigger role. He was Australia's standout bowler during the Zimbabwe series and has already started pushing his case for a place at next year's World Cup.

Starc recently backed Ellis' progress, pointing to his ability to bowl across different phases of an ODI innings. That matters because Ellis offers something different from Hazlewood and Starc, particularly through the middle overs and at the death.

The question is what happens when Australia's three premier Test quicks are all available.

Ellis has played 22 ODIs but has never shared an ODI with Cummins. His record in Australia and South Africa is also less impressive than his numbers on slower surfaces elsewhere, leaving him with plenty to prove during this series.

Cummins' captaincy also needs managing

Cummins remains Australia's official ODI captain, but his appearances in the format have been limited since the 2023 World Cup.

He has played only two of Australia's 28 ODIs since that tournament, while Mitchell Marsh has handled much of the captaincy work. Marsh is now the ODI deputy following Steve Smith's retirement from the format.

Australia are taking a long-term approach with Cummins, looking to keep him physically fresh while managing his workload. They also need to balance his leadership role as they build towards the 2027 World Cup. 

Australia have few spare quicks

The fast-bowling depth has taken another hit. Billy Stanlake has left the tour with a side strain, while Spencer Johnson has returned home to rest before Australia A's upcoming 50-over matches in India.

Jack Edwards has since been added to the squad as extra cover, while Cameron Green could return after missing the Zimbabwe ODIs with a shoulder issue.

Match	Venue	Date
1st ODI	Kingsmead, Durban	Sept 24
2nd ODI	Wanderers, Johannesburg	Sept 27
3rd ODI	Potchefstroom	Sept 30

The opening Australia vs South Africa ODI is scheduled for September 24 at Kingsmead, with the first ball due at 10am local time. The second match follows in Johannesburg on September 27 before the series concludes in Potchefstroom three days later.

For Australia, the immediate aim is not simply winning three ODIs. The bigger picture is getting Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood ready for a demanding Test campaign without pushing them unnecessarily through a packed one-day schedule.