Topuria vs Oliveira – UFC 317 Full Fight Preview, Stats, Odds & Predictions

UFC 317 is set to deliver a blockbuster showdown as undefeated rising star Ilia Topuria takes on Brazilian veteran and former champion Charles Oliveira in the main event at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. This five-round lightweight contest brings two vastly different fighting styles and stories into the Octagon, and fans can expect fireworks on June 28.

Both fighters are entering this matchup with something to prove—Topuria looking to extend his unbeaten streak into a new weight class, and Oliveira aiming to reclaim his standing as one of the division’s most dangerous names. Here’s everything you need to know about UFC 317’s main event, from fighter stats and form to betting odds and expert predictions.

Fighter Backgrounds

Ilia Topuria (17-0) comes into this fight with incredible momentum. After dismantling Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in back-to-back featherweight bouts, the 27-year-old now shifts to lightweight in search of two-division dominance. Known for his precision boxing, elite takedown defence, and aggressive pace, Topuria has finished 15 of his 17 wins—seven by knockout and eight by submission.

On the other hand, Charles Oliveira (35-11) is a battle-tested finisher with one of the most decorated résumés in UFC history. He holds the record for most finishes (20) and most submissions (16) in UFC history. Oliveira lost the lightweight belt to Islam Makhachev in 2022 but remains a dangerous threat to anyone in the division. His recent win over Beneil Dariush reminded fans that he still possesses devastating jiu-jitsu and knockout power.

Stats & Fighting Styles

Fighter	Record	KO/TKO Wins	Submission Wins	Finish Rate
Ilia Topuria	17–0	7	8	88%
Charles Oliveira	35–11	10	21	86%

Topuria is known for his compact, explosive striking. He often pressures opponents early and looks for clean countershots. His ability to stuff takedowns and control the centre of the Octagon has made him a nightmare for strikers and grapplers alike.

Oliveira, meanwhile, thrives in chaos. He uses his striking to draw opponents into wild exchanges before dragging them to the ground. Once there, he transitions fluidly between submission setups and is lethal from both top and bottom positions.

Betting Odds & Predictions

Oddsmakers currently have Topuria as the heavy favourite, with most sportsbooks listing him between –420 and –550. Oliveira, the underdog, sits in the +310 to +400 range depending on the platform.

Analysts are split. Some believe Topuria's crisp boxing and takedown defence will be enough to neutralise Oliveira’s jiu-jitsu threat. Others argue that Oliveira’s durability and experience in five-round wars could help him drag the fight into deep waters, where Topuria has never truly been tested.

Expert Predictions:

• CBS Sports: Leans Topuria by KO/TKO in Round 2
   
• TalkSPORT: Picks Oliveira by late submission
   
• MMAMania: Predicts Topuria via ground-and-pound stoppage
   
• Oddshark: Lists Topuria by KO as best value bet
   

The consensus leans toward Topuria finishing the fight early, but no one is counting Oliveira out, especially if he can survive the first two rounds.

X-Factors

• Experience: Oliveira has fought 47 professional MMA bouts, while this is just Topuria’s 18th. In five-round fights, Oliveira has been there before—Topuria hasn’t.
   
• Durability: Despite his recent success, Topuria has never faced a grappler as dangerous as Oliveira. If the fight hits the mat, things could turn quickly.
   
• Fight IQ: Topuria tends to start fast and keep control, but Oliveira thrives in scrambles and unpredictable situations. If Topuria overcommits, Oliveira could capitalise.

Key Matchup in UFC 317

This fight headlines an exciting UFC 317 card that also includes bouts like Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France and several high-stakes prelims. But Topuria vs Oliveira is the real draw—an elite striker vs a submission king, undefeated streak vs redemption arc.

It’s also a potential changing of the guard moment in the lightweight division. If Topuria wins, he could catapult himself into a title shot or even claim double-champion ambitions. If Oliveira pulls off the upset, he proves that he's not done chasing UFC gold.

Final Prediction

While Charles Oliveira is one of the most dangerous finishers in UFC history, Ilia Topuria has shown an ability to dominate elite fighters with speed, precision, and composure. The odds reflect his momentum, and many believe he’ll maintain his unbeaten record.

Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins via KO/TKO in Round 2.