Topuria vs Oliveira – UFC 317 Full Fight Preview, Stats, Odds & Predictions

UFC 317 is to be an epic event with an undefeated up-and-coming competitor in the main event, rising star Lia Topuria, taking on Brazilian veteran and former champion Charles Oliveira in the main event at the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. This lightweight five-round match-up casts together two very different fighting styles as well as histories, and the fans should anticipate an explosion of fireworks on June 28.

Both combatants are coming into this fight with an axe to grind, as Topuria is riding a winning streak and looking to make a name under a new weight where he has never lost, and Oliveira has some scores to settle in becoming one of the most feared names in the division once again. So, here is all that you should know about the main event of UFC 317 with the help of stats and form of the fighters, betting odds, and projections.

Fighter Backgrounds

The current fight has a lot of momentum on the side of Ilia Topuria (17-0). Having demolished Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in successive featherweight fights, the 27-year-old moves to lightweight to pursue a two-division reign. A precision boxer with elite takedown defence and fast fast-paced fighter, Topuria has ended 15 of his 17 victories, seven by knockout and eight by submission.

Charles Oliveira (35=11), on the other hand, is a hardened finisher, whose resume is one of the most decorated in the UFC history. He is the first fighter of UFC to complete 20 finishes and 16 submissions. In 2022, Oliveira was defeated by Islam Makhachev and is still very dangerous to any fighter in the lightweight division. The recent couple of journeys over Beneil Dariush made fans remember that the fighter is still extremely dangerous in jiu-jitsu and knockouts.

Stats & Fighting Styles

Fighter	Record	KO/TKO Wins	Submission Wins	Finish Rate
Ilia Topuria	17–0	7	8	88%
Charles Oliveira	35–11	10	21	86%

Topuria is characterized by his short, big hitting. He tends to pressure his opponent and find, early, clean counter shots. He is a nightmare to both strikers and grapplers due to his capability to stuff takedowns and control the centre of the Octagon.

Oliveira, in turn, loves pandemonium. He applies his striking to urge the opponents into giving chaotic exchanges and then pulling them on the ground. When there he can mix up his submission set ups smoothly and is as difficult to control on top as he is on the bottom.

Betting Odds & Predictions

Topuria is now a heavy favorite with oddsmakers, with the vast majority of sportsbooks putting him at either -420 or higher. The underdog Oliveira is in the +310 to +400 range across the platforms.

There is a division of opinion among analysts. It is thought by some that Topuria will be so crisp in the boxing and takedown defence that it would negate the Oliveira ju-jitsu. The others suggest that Oliveira could endure the war and have enough experience in five-round wars to make the fight go to deep waters because Topuria has never been to deep water.

Expert Predictions:

• CBS Sports: Leans Topuria by KO/TKO in Round 2
   
• TalkSPORT: Picks Oliveira by late submission
   
• MMAMania: Predicts Topuria via ground-and-pound stoppage
   
• Oddshark: Lists Topuria by KO as best value bet

The consensus leans toward Topuria finishing the fight early, but no one is counting Oliveira out, especially if he can survive the first two rounds.

X-Factors

• Experience: Oliveira has fought 47 professional MMA bouts, while this is just Topuria’s 18th. In five-round fights, Oliveira has been there before—Topuria hasn’t.
   
• Durability: Despite his recent success, Topuria has never faced a grappler as dangerous as Oliveira. If the fight hits the mat, things could turn quickly.
   
• Fight IQ: Topuria tends to start fast and keep control, but Oliveira thrives in scrambles and unpredictable situations. If Topuria overcommits, Oliveira could capitalise.

Key Matchup in UFC 317

The title tussle tops an extraordinary UFC 317 lineup also featuring tussles such as Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France and a bulk of high-stakes prelim fights. What really interests me is Topuria vs Oliveira, though, an elite striker against a submission specialist, a long unbeaten streak against a redemption story.

It is also a possible changing of the guard occurrence in the lightweight division. A victory should see Topuria launch himself into a potential title shot or even be regarded as a two-time champion. Should Oliveira manage an upset, it will be evidence that he has no intention of hanging up the gloves anytime soon in the pursuit of UFC gold.

Final Prediction

Although Charles Oliveira has been one of the scariest finishers in UFC history, Ilia Topuria has demonstrated the capability of overwhelming great fighters using speed, accuracy, and calmness. His momentum is captured in the odds, and many consider that he will continue his undefeated streak.

Pick: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO Round 2.